Amara's law

Amara's law is a maxim stating:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

It was put forth by Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future . It is sometimes called Saffo's law or Clarke's law.

It echoes a quote by Joseph Licklider that says:

A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years,

which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, "Libraries of the Future," MIT Press, 1965.

See also

• Adages named after people